Hurricane Predictions for 2020
The predictions for this season include 18 named storms, and 9 of them being hurricanes, which are set to start on June 1st. The Weather Channel, which is owned by IBM, makes these predictions every year and typically has an average of 12 named storms, six of them being hurricanes. These predictions are made possible by the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
Of the 9 hurricanes for this season, four are expected to be “major hurricanes” according to the Weather Channel. A “major hurricane” consists of Category 3 or higher and should have sustained winds of a minimum of 111 miles per house.
The Research Behind the Predictions
There are other researches, like forecasters from Colorado State University in Fort Collins, along with those at the University of Arizona in Tucson, and risk experts from University College London that have also predicted above-normal hurricane activity for 2020.
All three groups of researchers reported high sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which is the reason behind the predicted activity. The warm and moist air that evaporates from the ocean is like fuel for hurricanes as it pumps water into the atmosphere, which then gets carried to higher levels by winds until it rains. This releases more heat and pushes the cycle forward.
The sea-surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic this year are forecasted to be some of the warmest since 1993. This year was the first time researchers at the University of Arizona released their forecasts for the hurricane season in April instead of June.